Many view Kevin Durant as the Second Coming. We see him and the Thunder more likely coming Third through Sixth. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

On Wednesday we discussed what the Eastern Conference Playoff picture looks like, and today we go west, young man.  We’d already previously examined how much teams improved/regressed during the off-season, but now we’re talking about how they stack up against each other.  Meaning, we gave Orlando a zero for their summer and the Wizards a +2, but now we’re here to tell you that yes, of course Orlando is still gonna be far better.  For those who haven’t seen those posts on off-season grades, click the following links to see what we had to say about the Northwest, Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Pacific and Southwest Divisions.  Also, we’re only gonna be talking about the regular season here.  So even though we don’t think the Celts will be a top two team record-wise, it doesn’t mean we think they’re incapable of making it through the gauntlet again.  Lastly, some teams will be put in clusters ‘cuz they’ll likely end up with similar records and what does a victory or two here and there matter amongst friends?

#1 – Lakers

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If the acquisition of Trevor Ariza convinces CP3 to remain a Hornet for life, that'll end up being one amaze-alicious trade. (source: Yardbarker.com)

In this penultimate chapter of our off-season grades we’ll examine the Dallas Mavericks, Houston Rockets, Memphis Grizzlies, New Orleans Hornets and San Antonio Spurs.  For the first four parts, check out our reviews for the Atlantic, Central, Southeast and Pacific Divisions.  Tomorrow will be the Northwest Division. Once again, for the newcomers, here are the rules:

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After playing alongside James Posey and Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul will be happy to have a forward in Trevor Ariza who can actually still dunk. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

In a four-team, five-player trade, the New Orleans Hornets will be acquiring Trevor Ariza from the Houston Rockets in an attempt to prove to their star Chris Paul that they’re committed to winning.  In return, they’re giving away last year’s promising rookie point guard, Darren Collison, who will land with the Desperately-Seeking-Point-Guard Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers also will have to take on the contract of James Posey.  Indiana in turn will send Troy Murphy and his expiring $12 million contract to the New Jersey Nets.  Finally, the Nets pass along second year shooting guard Courtney Lee to the Rockets.  How did each team fare?  Well…

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Alexis Ajinca was picked 20th but has only played 37 games. And he was a first rounder. What happens to players chosen 10 to 40 picks later? ...Usually not much. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

This year the Knicks have no first round picks, although there have been rumors that they might try to buy a late one.  On the other hand, they do have two second-round picks, and yet another rumor (as mentioned by ESPN’s Chris Sheridan) has them possibly buying two more second-rounders.  Me, I can’t help but wonder why?  Many fans seem excited about it and love talking about these hidden diamonds in the rough that we might find to help us turnaround.  My first thought is that if we truly do want to get LeBron or some of the big names to come here, how excited are they going to be about a roster with five rookies (particularly since none of ‘em would be lottery picks or even top 25).  My second thought was: how often do 2nd rounders even end up being valuable players, let alone useable?

I decided to do a little research to answer that question.  I looked at the draft classes from the five years from 2000-2004.  Why those years?  I figured rookies sometimes take a little while to hit their stride, so this means everyone’s had at least 6 years to finally hit their groove.  If they haven’t come into their own yet, we can safely assume it ain’t gonna happen.  I didn’t want to go too much further back though ‘cuz it wouldn’t have included the influx of foreign players.  Plus the year 2000 is cool.  Oh, and one thing to note is that the Charlotte Bobcats joined the league in 2004, so that year we’ve got 30 second-rounders, but the earlier four had just 29 guys each.

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Damn straight, Phil Jackson should be walking with his head down after some of his coaching choices! Right? ...Right? Um, maybe not. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

Is there anyone in the NBA who gets criticized more than coaches?  It doesn’t matter who you are, how successful you are (or have been), or what players you have at your disposal — we can always find problems with you.  Earlier this year, Greg Popovitch was criticized for being unable to make his big off-season acquisition, Richard Jefferson, productive.  The other night, Phil Jackson, winner of more NBA titles than God himself, left himself open for target practice by choosing to draw up a play for Pau Gasol to attempt the game-tying three-point shot (Pau missed, which could cause the Lakers to lose home court advantage if they play the Magic in the Finals).

We, the fans and media, aren’t necessarily wrong in complaining about these points, but I think sometimes we not only expect too much, we also don’t always see (or know) the full picture.  For instance, maybe Phil was trying to make a point to Kobe about how the Black Mamba needed to give his body rest or it would cost the team (the previous possession Kobe missed two free throws that would’ve given the Lakers the lead).  If Kobe/Fisher/Artest/whoever hit a three for the tie, then maybe Kobe remains convinced that he can play through his injuries.  Sure, you can say this was a costly way to make a point (& I have no idea if Phil was trying to make this point), but if Kobe’s sitting out these two last games enables him to be healthy enough to lead the Lakers back to a championship, it’d be hard to argue with the results.

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Poor Outlet Passing

On two separate occasions, the Knicks turned the ball over in the backcourt.  The first comes after a Rockets three pointer:

Now, both J.R. Giddens and Chris Duhon are at fault here:

(source: NBAPlaybook.com)

This is because Trevor Ariza is hanging around and it should have been noticed by either guy (or at least 1).  This is something that a lot of teams do to get the ball out of the PGs hands, but it rarely turns into a steal.  However, Giddens grabs the ball out of the net and just tosses to where Duhon is without looking.  For his part, Duhon floats away from the basketball as it comes to him instead of meeting the ball and ensuring the catch.  The Rockets went from being down 14 to being down 9 after this.  This was a huge 5 point swing in this game as the Knicks went from pulling away to trying to hang on to the lead.

This happened yet again later in the game, this time coming off of a missed basket:

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Gallo didn't shy away from contact ...which seemed to include head pats mussing up his hair plus kidney bunny punches (source: Yardbarker.com)

Friday night, David Lee missed his first game of the season due to a sore right knee.  What made it hurt as much for fans as it did for him is the fact that he inexplicably played 40+ minutes in the previous game even though we were getting blown away by the Celtics.  However, in the continuing saga of a bizarre season where nothing makes sense: we won.  What made the win against the Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers even more unlikely? Our second (or third?) best player, Wilson Chandler, missed the game again due to injury (at this point it’s possible Wil might not return this season).  Throw in that our fourth best player, Tracy McGrady went 0-for-7 in 29 minutes.  Gently stir and mix in that our replacement starting center, Jonathan Bender, left the game when he broke a finger on his left hand in the first half (which’ll cause him to miss the rest of the season).

Yup, East is West, Black is White, Up is Down.  I’m pretty darn good at math, but I can’t figure out the calculus of how we won this thing. You figure, well, Al Harrington must’ve had one of those nights when he exploded.  Nope, the dude played 40 minutes, yet only tossed in 11 points on a pathetic 25% field-goal shooting.  We came into the fourth quarter trailing.  We’d been down as much as 12 points.  The Sixers, who killed us on the boards in the last game (as most teams do), even had their point guard snag 8 rebounds — yet somehow they lost the battle of the boards by a sizable 13 of ‘em!  It’s like this game took place in Bizarro World or something.  In a bit of nostalgia, Coach Mike D’Antoni played Chris Duhon an astounding 31 minutes.  In a ton of normalcy, Duhon responded with three points on 20% shooting and not a single assist.  Nice to see some things don’t change.  EVER. (more…)

New Yorkers, rightfully, are worried that this is an all-or-nothing proposition.  Basically, unless we get LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, we’ll just be a slightly above average team.  Kinda like how we looked with Crawford & Randolph.  While there are other studs available this summer like A’mare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, none of ‘em are mega-stars who ensure you’ll have a legit shot at winning a championship.  Those second-tier guys just assure that you’ll make the playoffs.  Even if you do get two of ‘em.

So if we don’t get Plan A, does that mean Plan B is doomed to fail?  Not necessarily.  Most Knicks fans are worried about Plan B, but that’s ‘cuz they assume it means not just that we sign two lesser talents, but that we sign them to more than they’re worth.  The fear is that we do something like the Pistons did this summer, when they had a bunch of cash and felt compelled to spend it, thus overpaying for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, both of whom are currently coming off the bench for Detroit.  Likewise, several years ago a few teams cleared cap space to sign Tim Duncan and Grant Hill.  After Duncan stayed with the Spurs and Hill went with Tracy McGrady to Orlando, Chicago paid a bunch of money to some scrubs just to say they got someone.

Now if Isiah was still in charge, sure, we all know he would definitely follow that path, but doesn’t Donnie Walsh deserve the benefit of the doubt?  Besides the remarkable salary dumping job he did for us, he had quite a run with the Indiana Pacers.  Not only did he assemble enough talent for them to constantly be in the top of the east during the late 1990s, but he even got that team to Finals against the Lakers in… what was it, 2000?  And after that within a year or two he had completely rejuvenated that team, getting rid of Rick Smits, Mark Jackson, Dale Davis, Antonio Davis, Jalen Rose, and turning them into a young Eastern Conference contender around Jermaine O’Neal, Brad Miller, Ron Artest, Stephen Jackson, Jamaal Tinsley, and the still effective Grandpa Reggie Miller.  This was a team that seemed poised to make it to the finals for the next few years until the unfortunate Malice At The Palace, players-and-fans-scuffle.  Has a team ever been turned around that quickly with a completely new cast?  The Lakers new team is still built around Kobe, one of their two supernova stars from their earlier three-peat.  The old-time Celtics won like 11 championships with various supporting stars, but they all centered around Bill Russell.

Fine, you say, we’ll give Walsh a chance.  But if he doesn’t get LeBron or Wade, what can he reasonably do to get the rest of the cream of the crop?  The key is getting some supporting parts at reasonable prices.  Houston has been excellent at that, getting solid unflashy guys like Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, and Carl Landry on the (relative) cheap.  Get Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson to agree to slightly less than the max, and then try to snag Ray Felton, Brendan Haywood, Josh Childress, Shannon Brown, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili, Kyle Korver, or Mike Miller on the cheap.  Maybe David Lee or TMac will agree to a lesser deal.  It would be pretty solid to have a line-up of Bosh, Lee, Gallo, Chandler, and Felton with Childress, Brown, Miller & TMac coming off the bench.

Yes, that’d still probably only get us to 4th or 5th in the East, but here’s the thing: it also would keep us out of the tax.  Since you personally don’t have to pay the tax as a fan, you probably don’t care, but it matters a bunch.  Why?  It means that the following summer, 2011, when Eddy Curry’s $11.3 million salary comes off the books, we can use that full amount to sign someone else.  If we give out excessive contracts this summer, we’ll go over the cap and won’t be able to add anyone new after we get rid of Curry.

With that $11+ mill, we could have a real shot at such 2011 free agents as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Greg Oden, Jason Richardson, Samuel Dalembert, Jeff Green, David West, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, J.R.Smith, Nene, Caron Butler, Joakim Noah, Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, and some guy named Carmelo Anthony.  Adding just one of those guys to the above roster would probably elevate the team to one of the East’s elite.  Adding Melo would bring a very real possibility of winning multiple championships.

By having a few reasonable, desirable smaller contracts, we could also trade Curry’s expiring contract in the middle of next season, so we wouldn’t even have to wait for 2011.  Like by next year the Celtics will finally have to accept that Kevin Garnett is so half-dead he’s practically a zombie.  They realize they need to blow up the team, so they decide to get rid of Paul Pierce for an expiring contract.  He makes more than Curry, but we throw in Mike Miller to make things work.  Using those contracts would also help if say someone like Melo wants more than that $11 mill.  We basically give a Mike Miller to a team for free (like only getting a second round pick in return), and then we have like another $3 mill available to pay Anthony.

The point is that it’s not LeBron/Wade or mediocrity.  It’s about not returning to the ways of Scott Layden & Isiah Thomas (& honestly lots of other GMs), and overpaying mid-level players.