GUARDS

Stars:

Feb 12, 2013; Salt Lake City, UT, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook (0) shoots during the first quarter against the Utah Jazz at EnergySolutions Arena. Mandatory Credit: Russ Isabella-USA TODAY Sports

1. Russell Westbrook – HOU@OKC – $8,700

A minimum of 30 FDP is what I would peg Westbrook at for tonight against a fast-paced Rocket team. While 30 probably isn’t worth his high price tag, he should have opportunity to post a handful more than that with how high scoring this game should be.

2. Stephen Curry – PHO@GS – $8,400

Curry has posted 39 and 36 FDP in his past two games in losing efforts. He’s on a back to back, but I’d look for him to keep rolling as the Warriors are at home looking to break a five game losing streak.

3. Dwyane Wade – MIA@ATL – $9,000

It’s tough not to put Harden here, but Wade has been just as hot and gets an easier defensive draw tonight. Wade has averaged a healthy 37.6 FDP over his past ten, a trend that I would expect to continue at Atlanta tonight.

Values:

4. Gerald Henderson – DET@CHA – $4,600

After posting 36 FDP at Orlando last night, I’ll be rolling with Henderson again for this price. There are rumors of him being on the trade block and once you combine that with his recent stretch of games, he should continue to get his opportunities tonight and should provide great value.

5. Ricky Rubio – PHI@MIN – $5,800

He’s finally getting big minutes after returning from injury and has put together a stretch of impressive games, including a near triple double. He can perform like a top PG and is very hard to not take at this price.

FORWARDS

Stars:

Feb 12, 2013; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Heat small forward LeBron James (6) dribbles against the Portland Trail Blazers during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

1.  LeBron James – MIA@ATL – $9,700

LeBron is both the best and hottest player in the game and you’d be hard-pressed not to take him any time he’s on the board. I wouldn’t expect less than 40 FDP.

2.  Rudy Gay – MEM@WAS – $8,100

Gay saw a $600 price increase from yesterday, but I still like him at that price. He’s still shooting a ridiculous amount and I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt he will continue to do so, especially with his former team in town tonight, although Tony Allen poses some threat as a defensive match-up.

3.  Dirk Nowitzki – ORL@DAL – $7,100

Dirk has been relatively consistent lately and gets a solid draw coming out of the break with the Magic tonight. He should be fresh and produce up to par for his price tag.

Value:

4.  Andrew Nicholson – ORL@DAL – $4,200

Another solid option for the minutes he gets, Nicholson gets a pretty good match-up tonight. He’s hard to fully count on still, but for the price, he’s one of the cheap guys that will get his chances to compile some stats.

5.  Jeff Green – BOS@ATL – $4,600

Coming off a 28 FDP performance last night at Denver, Green is one of the best producers in this price range. He has seen both an increase in minutes and opportunities over his past handful of games and should continue to get run with the short-handed Celtics.

CENTERS

Star:

1. Greg Monroe – DET@CHA – $8,400

He had his first disappointing game in a while last night, but has been an absolute beast of late otherwise. Expect a big bounce back game for Monroe against this Bobcats front-court.

Value:

2. Spencer Hawes – PHI@MIN – $5,700

Out of the $6,000 and below guys at center, Hawes has been getting the most consistent minutes. He’ll most likely be good for 20 FDP or more just with the amount of run he will get, which isn’t bad if you’re trying to go cheaper at center, but it’s probably worthwhile to stretch out a few hundred more to get Omer Asik.

The Thunder lost 91-85 Sunday night to put the Heat up 2 games to 1 in the series.  The 2 losses have been for completely different reasons.  In game 2, the loss was mostly attributed to the awful start as they went 1-12 in the opening minutes and fell behind 18-2 making it catch-up for the duration of the game.  In game 3, after playing a solid 40+ minutes of basketball, poor decisions in crunch time led to their downfall.

Lets first talk about game 2:

After having such a bad start, a comeback of this magnitude against the Miami Heat in the Finals even with a guy like Durant is hard to come by. Since game 1 was also similar in that the Thunder fell behind early (shot 1-6 from opening tip resulting in a 20-10 deficit in first quarter), people were wondering whether Harden should be in the starting lineup to add scoring to the slow-starting offense. Sefolosha was not posing any offensive threat at the shooting guard position or doing his job on defense (3 points in Game 2) and Perkins wasn’t playing much of a role either (combined 8 points 15 rebounds in Game I and 2), so it was a valid point.

But who in there right minds would want to tinker with the starting lineup in the finals when for the whole playoffs the starting lineup of Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins was working – they won 13 of 17 games and went 47-19 in the regular season.  Scott Brooks said in an interview before game 3 “it hasn’t even crossed my mind to change the starting lineup”.  Westbrook in an interview on slow starts said that its all about “coming out ready to play and they were more ready to play than we were…we have to come out and play harder.”  Later he was asked what adjustments they needed to make and Westbrook said he isn’t making any adjustments “regardless of what anybody says.”

The Thunder improved on their game 2 deficiencies in game 3.

1.  They came out with a strong start, never being down by more than 6 in the first quarter shooting 9-19.

2.  Sefolosha came back from a poor game 2 and played outstanding defense on Wade and Lebron coming up with 3 steals, one of which was one of the most important plays of the game when he stripped it from Wade dribbling up the court and finished for a layup to make it a 3 point game with around 2 minutes left.  He also hit the first basket of the game.

3.  Perkins proved all the doubters that he should stay in the starting lineup by going for 10 points on 12 rebounds, 6 of which were offensive.

4. The Thunder’s defense forced 8 turnovers in the 4th quarter, close to as many as all of game 2.

But with all of these improvements, plus Durant still scoring 25 points, the Thunder still lost.  Bottom line is that in a very tight game, the Thunder still did not make smart decisions.  Whether is was Westbrook’s offensive charge, or Harden’s rookie move fouling Lebron with 16 seconds left (they did not need to foul down 3) as he tried to draw a charge with his below par acting skills.  Then the miscommunication on the inbound pass from Sefolosha down 4 with 13 seconds left, which is truly unaccetable… lead to their demise.  This cannot happen if the Thunder want to win the finals.  In game 2, you could come back being down in the 1st quarter, but in game 3 when you make mistakes in the final minutes, there is no coming back.

So How Can The Thunder get to Game 6?

One thing for sure is they need to hit their free throws.  In game 3 they shot 15-24 from the line and with every game being decided by 6 points or less, where leads come and go as fast as a jaguar in the finals, this cannot happen.

Another thing that needs to happen is Westbrook needs to find a medium of aggressiveness.  He needs to pick his spots – when he needs to step up and drive to the basket and when he should just give the ball to Durant and that is a point guard job to do.

In game 3 the thunder improved on their game 2 weaknesses but weren’t smart down the stretch. And in game 4 they need to not only improve on game 2 weaknesses by getting off to a better start but also game 3 weaknesses by finishing the game wisely.

If they overcome all these weaknesses – slow starts, lack of production from supporting cast, Westbrook and Harden playing without intelligence late in the game, and poor free throw shooting, we will see the Finals return to Oklahoma.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t, but league general managers have felt it best to surround their team with three stars and then simply attempt to fill in the rest of the pieces.

What the ‘Big Three’ leads to is very little depth, but enough star power to carry teams deep into the playoffs.

Which NBA team has the best ‘Big Three?’

Dec 25, 2011; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks power forward Amare Stoudemire (1) and small forward Carmelo Anthony (7) during the first quarter against the Boston Celtics at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Anthony Gruppuso-US PRESSWIRE

Let’s take a look.

6. New York Knicks (Carmelo Anthony, Amar’e Stoudemire, Tyson Chandler):

The Knicks sold the farm to pair Anthony with Stoudemire after things started to turn around in 2011 when Amar’e signed with New York as a free agent. They completed the trifecta by signing Chandler as a free agent this past offseason.

Yet among the ‘Big Threes’ in the NBA, the Knicks have a long way to go before they figure it out.

Melo and Stoudemire have yet to prove that they can co-exist after a rough first year and a half of the marriage, and they often have terrible floor spacing.

Unlike other ‘Big Threes,’ who have three multi-talented players, the Knicks’ ‘Big Three’ almost seems like a group of specialists.

Chandler is a great defender with a limited offensive package, while the other two have trouble spelling the word defense at times.

Melo is a scorer, and who knows what Stoudemire is anymore in the Knicks gameplan, aside from a guy whose injuries are catching up with him.

5. Boston Celtics (Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen):

They won’t be the ‘Big Three’ much longer, but for now they are still in Boston, so they make the list.

As a group, age and injury have caught up to them.

While KG may have found new life playing the 5, Allen’s best days are behind him and he may be nothing more than a role-player in the future.

As for Pierce, he’s 34, and while he may still have some big moments ahead of him, consistency is starting to become an issue. It was a good run, but it looks like it’s over.

4. Los Angeles Lakers (Kobe Bryant, Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol):

The question surrounding the Lakers’ ‘Big Three’ is whether or not they will still be together next season.

The Lakers should be higher on this list, but they don’t play to their strength nearly often enough, their strength being the length of Bynum and Gasol.

Sure, Kobe is the scorer, but even though he averaged 27.9 points per game this Lakers trio isn’t nearly as dominant when the big men aren’t the primary focal point of the offense.

3. San Antonio Spurs (Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili):

Jan 16, 2011; San Antonio, TX, USA; San Antonio Spurs players Tim Duncan (left) and Tony Parker (9), and Manu Ginobili (20) watch on the bench in the fourth quarter against the Denver Nuggets at the AT

The Spurs trio are all 30 or older, but all are still playing at a very high level.

The bottom line is that they all know how to play winning basketball and are willing to sacrifice production for the betterment of team goals.

Parker played at an MVP level this year, and Duncan and Ginobili showed that they aren’t ready to slow down just yet.

2. Miami Heat (LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh):

This ‘Big Three’ was built primarily through free agency, and you’ve seen the results—the Heat don’t have much depth and likely never will, as long as these three are together.

But when you consider that you have a three-time MVP in James, and 23 combined All-Star selections between the three, you realize that this trio is very good.

The scary part is that Wade is the elder statesman at only 30 years of age.

There are only two things I don’t like about this group.

One is that Wade’s body has shown signs of breaking down this year.

The other is that Wade and LeBron are too similar in style. The both need the ball in their hands, and both are more effective in isolation mode.

Other than my nitpicking there, these guys are fantastic.

1. Oklahoma City Thunder (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden):

The nicest part about this trio is that they were built through the draft, allowing the Thunder to add a couple of key parts around them.

These guys are young and ultra-talented.

All they have is the three-time scoring champion in Durant, a point guard in Westbrook who averaged 23.6 points per game and the best sixth man in the game in Harden.

The scariest part is that Durant and Westbrook are only 23 and Harden is only 22.

If they win the championship this year, we could potentially see a dynasty in OKC.

While this may not resemble “The Decision,” by any chance, whatever the arbitrator rules of whether or not the Knicks get the Bird Right’s of Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak becomes a huge decision for the future of the Knicks.

Mar 21, 2012; Philadelphia, PA, USA; New York Knicks guard Jeremy Lin (17) during the fourth quarter against the Philadelphia 76ers at the Wells Fargo Center. The Knicks defeated the Sixers 82-79. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE

Whether or not the Knicks have to use the MLE on Lin or not, it is worth at least looking at how high Lin’s ceiling really is.

It’s so hard to predict Lin’s future due to the fact that we’ve only had a 25 game look at him. To immediately think that just because they may re-sign him that the Knicks would have one of the best point guards in the NBA would be foolish thinking.

I love the promise Lin showed, but the one thing that could determine how he progresses as a point guard and how the Knicks progress as a team could be how Lin handles himself among the elite point guards in the NBA.

Judging off last season alone, would you be confident of Lin in a playoff series against the likes of a Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook, Chris Paul, Derrick Rose or Rajon Rondo type of point guard?

Aside from the horrific Miami game for Lin, some of his worst performances were turned in against the likes of the Boston Celtics, San Antonio Spurs, New Jersey Nets and Chicago Bulls. What those teams have in common is an elite floor general.

That’s not to say that Lin won’t continue to get better and I think he will, but that is still something that could raise a red flag. I think it’s very good for Lin right now that he’s healthy and has the entire offseason to prepare to play major minutes next season.

What the Knicks are hoping for is that Lin progresses and becomes maybe a Top 10 point guard in the NBA. That will require a lot of work, but I think he’s talented enough to get there. For the Knicks to win a championship, they will need a point guard that can hold his own against the better point guards in the NBA during a seven-game series.

Is Lin that guy?

Who knows right now, but given a full season under his belt, I’m pretty confident he can be.

Hopefully it is in a Knicks uniform.

Yesterday Team USA won gold at the World Championship, and if you don't think that's impressive or surprising, you couldn't be more wrong. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

The reaction from many friends when I’ve mentioned the US won the World Championship Sunday has ranged from “What is it?  I didn’t even know it was going on?” to “Big whoop.”  Even though less knowledgeable (or more blindly patriotic) people assumed of course we should win, that was far from fact heading into this thing.  Many didn’t even consider us the favorite.  So for the less-obsessed hoops fan out there, let’s go over the seven key points that made this victory so dang impressive and surprising:

1) We hadn’t won the World Championship in 16 years, and for the rest of the world the World Championship is a bigger deal than the Olympics.

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Many view Kevin Durant as the Second Coming. We see him and the Thunder more likely coming Third through Sixth. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

On Wednesday we discussed what the Eastern Conference Playoff picture looks like, and today we go west, young man.  We’d already previously examined how much teams improved/regressed during the off-season, but now we’re talking about how they stack up against each other.  Meaning, we gave Orlando a zero for their summer and the Wizards a +2, but now we’re here to tell you that yes, of course Orlando is still gonna be far better.  For those who haven’t seen those posts on off-season grades, click the following links to see what we had to say about the Northwest, Atlantic, Central, Southeast, Pacific and Southwest Divisions.  Also, we’re only gonna be talking about the regular season here.  So even though we don’t think the Celts will be a top two team record-wise, it doesn’t mean we think they’re incapable of making it through the gauntlet again.  Lastly, some teams will be put in clusters ‘cuz they’ll likely end up with similar records and what does a victory or two here and there matter amongst friends?

#1 – Lakers

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Derrick Rose helped the US escape today's game against Brazil with a win. What concerns lie ahead though? (Source: Yardbarker.com)

With the FIBA World Championship Tournament in Turkey now completing its third day, the US squad squeaked past Brazil to now be 3-0.  During the run-up to the tournament, the team had looked better and better as they scrimmaged against other countries.  The pitiful looking team that only barely scraped by against a seriously undermanned French team, managed to not only come out strong against co-favorite Spain, but to even maintain their cool and snatch the one-point win when things got tight in the end.  Before that game, although bookmakers had the US listed as the favorites, everyone in the know (including many big-time USA supporters) had Spain as the true team to beat.  So things look more hopeful now, but there are still 3 big issues to overcome.

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The Portland Trailblazers' coach, Nate McMillan. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

On the front page of FanSided I had the following:

First off, congrats to Oklahoma City’s Scott Brooks for winning Coach Of The Year. Without a doubt, the dude deserved it. As everyone likes to point, he took a team that started last year 3-29 and without any real significant personnel additions, turned them into this season’s 50-win team. We all knew they’d be good, particularly since after that 3-29 start they went 20-30, but no one expected them to be this good this soon. The scary thing to imagine is how good they’d be if they’d used their #3 draft pick on Tyreke Evans or Stephen Curry instead of James Harden. I know they wanted Russell Westbrook to remain the man at point guard so they chose the top shooting guard prospect, but c’mon, both ‘Reke and Curry can play the two. At 6′6″, presumed Rookie of the Year ‘Reke is even an inch taller than Harden. I imagine he’d get more than the 13 minutes/game that Harden’s averaged during the first two playoff battles. But I came here not to talk Thunder, but Trailblazer.

The man who came in second place for Coach Of The Year was the Bucks’ Scott Skiles, another well-deserving candidate. In the off-season Milwaukee lost Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions, then only got 18 games out of leading scorer Michael Redd (and in many of those games even Redd’s minutes/abilities were limited due to injuries). Yet Skiles got his team to buy in on defense (which has always been his calling card), and with the late-season trade for John Salmons, brought them to an impressive 46 wins (& they might’ve had even more if not for Andrew Bogut’s season-ending injury at the beginning of this month). Um, however, this isn’t about him either.

Click here to read the rest.

"Dude, you said the Knicks sucked!" "Yeah, well you said TMac was done!"

The Oklahoma Thunder have made one of the most remarkable turnarounds in NBA history.  After winning only 21 games last year (or in a glass half-empty view, losing 61 games), they now are 5th in the ultra-competitive Western Conference.  They are in the middle of the longest current winning streak in the league (nine games), and they have third-year phenom, Kevin Durant, a legit MVP candidate.  It could be argued that Durant is second in the MVP race to only LeBron.  Plus, he’s in the middle of a streak of having scored 25+ points in 27 straight games.  At first that last statement didn’t seem that impressive to me, ‘cuz after all like LeBron and Carmelo are averaging nearly 30 a game, while others like Kobe and Allen Iverson have averaged that much (or more) for a whole season too.  However, in the last 35 years there is only one person who has ever accomplished that feat: Michael Jordan.  Yup, no other active player has done it.  Not LeBron, Kobe, Wade, Shaq, AI or even the Knicks’ newbie, TMac (a man who’s lead the league in scoring a couple of times).

All of which goes to say that after the way the Knicks have been playing, it was pretty darn remarkable we almost won this game, let alone played well.  The big story, as everyone’s already heard, is Tracy McGrady’s big game.  That he’s back.  Not to be glass-half-empty again (what am I, thirsty or something?), but I’m skeptical that he can bring that kind of production regularly.  What I do think that he can help keep bringing back is the energy in the Garden.  The crowd was more alive than they are on Free Taco Night.  Okay, there’s no Free Taco Night (the correct question here is: why the hell not?), but Madison Square was rocking Saturday night.  For once, people came to see the Knicks, not the other team, or just to be “seen.”

McGrady's most athletic play of the night: When a Thunder-ite goes to block his shot on the right, mid-air Tmac does a loopedy-loop and scoops it in lefty

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With a few of them likely to sit out this summer so they don’t injure themselves before they get a new contract (in other words the guys the Knicks would chase after: LeBron, Wade, Bosh, plus A’mare Stoudamire who made the pool too), it does provide some openings.  Not to mention that say a banged up Kobe might need to take the summer off to get his body healthy again.  Of course, included in those free agents-to-be are none other than David Lee, so he himself might have to bow out.  Oh, and another thing in Lee’s favor is that once again the Knicks’ coach Mike D’Antoni will be one of the assistant coaches on the USA team.  It’s always nice having someone on the inside to help plead your case.

Anyway, the remaining invitees include the Denver Nuggets’ Chauncey Billups, LA Lakers’ Lamar Odom, plus a who’s-who of all the young and upcoming players in the NBA according to ESPN: the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Kevin Durant (pretty much a lock to make the final roster since he almost made it last time and he’s only gotten better), Chicago Bulls’ Derrick Rose,

Minnesota‘s Al Jefferson and Kevin Love; Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo of Memphis; Philadelphia‘s Andre Iguodala; Boston‘s Kendrick Perkins; Indiana‘s Danny Granger; New York‘s David Lee; New Jersey center Brook Lopez; Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook; Portland‘s LaMarcus Aldridge; Charlotte‘s Gerald Wallace; and Clippers guard Eric Gordon.

The Americans will choose a group from the roster to take part in their minicamp in Las Vegas in July. They are expected to play an exhibition game in New York before heading to Turkey for the world championships, which they haven’t won since 1994.