Are the Knicks better off without J.R. Smith?

One of the more intriguing story lines for the New York Knicks this offseason outside of the Jeremy Lin front revolves around the looming decision for sixth man J.R. Smith.

Smith was a mid-season addition by the Knicks when he escaped his stay playing in the Chinese Basketball League. He holds a player option for the 2012-13 season worth just over $2 million and, while he has hinted towards testing the free agent market via Twitter, nobody knows for certain what his decision will inevitably be.

When he did arrive to New York, Smith played almost exclusively off the bench (in his 35 games with the Knicks, only once did he appear in the starting line-up). However, Smith played roughly 27 minutes a night and was often on the court during crunch time situations with Iman Shumpert, Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler and Amar’e Stoudemire.

On the season, he averaged 12.5 points (4th on the team), 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals. However, his 40.7% from the field was his lowest shooting percentage since the 2005-06 season he spent in New Orleans, and his 34.7% from beyond the arc was the second-worst of his career.

Though the decision is out of the hands of the front office, one question is worth asking: are the Knicks better off without J.R. Smith next season?

When looking at the free agent market, are there better options than Smith that will cost the same or less? With the team looking to maximize production out of their dollars, this is an important question to ask.

With his performance down the stretch for the Los Angeles Clippers, it appears Nick Young is going to take up the majority of some team’s Mid-Level Exception, putting him probably out of the Knicks price range for the position their looking to fill. Neither DeShawn Stevenson or Delonte West would fill the scoring need off the bench the Knicks would be seeking, and, at this point in their careers, are more along the lines of a veteran role player/defensive stopper as opposed to sixth man.

The likely options within the Knicks price range fall along the lines of Randy Foye and Marco Belinelli. The most expensive I can see the Knicks going on the free agent market would be for a player like Leandro Barbosa, who has the ability to start for the Knicks and push Landry Fields into a sixth man role. If you wanted to get creative, Philadelphia restricted free agent Jodie Meeks could be an option, though anything inexpensive would likely be matched by the 76ers. And there’s the question of how much you believe in the strong play from New Jersey swing-man Gerald Green at the end of last season.

Of the players listed, I would probably rank Smith ahead of them all with the exception of Barbosa. But, again, in my opinion, I don’t see a scenario in which Barbosa takes less than the full Mid-Level Exception, which is something J.R. Smith is scheduled to do next season.

I also believe some team is going to be more willing to take a chance and overspend on both Gerald Green or Randy Foye, who both could start for second division teams and be seen as a slight improvement. The market is going to price them out of the Knicks comfort range.

Should the Knicks consider Marco Belinelli?

I am, however, intrigued by the possibilities of Marco Belinelli. Last season, the 26-year old Italian averaged 11.8 points, 2.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists. He has experience both starting and playing off the bench, and can play the point in a pinch. Maybe more importantly, he made $3.37 million, a step above what Smith made ($2.23 million). The positives to Belinelli over J.R. Smith is he doesn’t command the attention offensively that Smith seemingly craves, all while having the ability to score at will and net 20+ points on any given night. He was a %37.7 shooter from 3, and 41.7% from the field, similar averages to Smith.

Should Smith decide against picking up his player option, Belinelli should be considered as a free agent option, even if he requires a bit of a raise in the process.

The second and third options needed to be considered if the Knicks are to move on without J.R. Smith revolve around who is currently on the roster and who the Knicks could possibly draft. Both of these scenarios we’ve covered extensively so far. As much as we all love Steve Novak, he isn’t a true sixth man, and his defensive liabilities can hurt the Knicks in crunch time situations (even if he’s 3-point shooting is beyond lethal). Iman Shumpert will miss the majority of next season, if not all of it, so he isn’t really an option. I covered Kim English and his draft potential last week, and while he has the potential to grow into a prototypical sixth man, he won’t be at that point in time for the Knicks next season.

So, are the Knicks better off without J.R. Smith? They could be, with the potential of someone fitting the Knicks’ style of play being available on the free agent market. Smith is a player who commands the ball on offense, even in games in which he may not have his shooting touch. Preferably, the Knicks need a scorer off the bench, but someone with the wherewithal to defer when needed.

Is that player Marco Belinelli? Or can J.R. Smith refine his game? These are important question the Knicks front office need to investigate in order to put a better product on the court.

Is J.R. Smith a better pure scorer than Belinelli? Yes.

But, is that what the New York Knicks need with the line-up they currently have? Not necessarily.

Who replaces Shumpert in the short-term?

On Draft Night 2011, there were very few New York Knicks fans overjoyed by the first round selection of Georgia Tech combo-guard Iman Shumpert. A lot of people, myself included, believed there was better talent still on the board in that situation.

Funny things tend to happen over time, and Iman Shumpert not only became a fan favorite for his style of play and bravado, but he began to grow into one of the league’s best shutdown defenders along the wing. Now, however, the team will likely be without Shumpert until the All-Star weekend, if not longer, after he blew out his ACL during Game 1 in Miami.

Needless to say, with the increased emphasis the Knicks have put on defensive pressure, his absence is going to be felt. It leaves the team with a massive crater not only on their bench, but possibily in their starting line-up, and drastically undermanned against high-powered teams like the Miami Heat or Boston Celtics.

So, how do the Knicks go about replacing Iman Shumpert?

First, we as Knicks fans need to consider the type of financial opportunities that are present for the Knicks on the open market. Right now, the Knicks have their full Mid-Level Exception in play, with the status of that being up in the air depending on the Bird Rights rulings in the cases of Jeremy Lin and Steve Novak. Second, one needs to consider who will already be on the Knicks roster moving forward. No doubt Carmelo Anthony and Tyson Chandler will be here. Same can be said about Amar’e Stoudemire. Landry Fields is a restricted free agent who will likely be brought back. Lin and Novak are both likely to return (at least that’s what the team is saying publicly). Josh Harrelson and Jerome Jordan are both under contract and also likely to remain Knicks. Toney Douglas is under contract, but his stay is a little more tenuous. That’s nine players ranging from probable to most likely being Knicks, leaving space for three more active players and six roster spots total.

The Knicks would probably like to bring back Jared Jeffries, being able to provide strong defense from the bench, and he, like anyone else, will cost money. J.R. Smith holds a player option going into next season, but its anyone’s guess as to what he’s really thinking, and if he declines the option, he could probably command more money on the open market. All this being said, let’s forecast the Knicks having a full Mid-Level in play to sign either a starting two-guard or back-up (depending on your evaluation of Landry Fields, that’s what the Knicks will be looking for).

Unlike the point guard market, the names that flood the field for potential fillers at the two-guard are vast. If the Knicks wanted to bring in a veteran defensive force, both Delonte West and DeShawn Stevenson will be available this season. Randy Foye is another name to watch as well, having finished strong with the Clippers towards the end of last season. Atlanta Hawks unrestriced free agent Willie Green could provide the most offense in short spurts out of the bunch, but he is more or less a J.R. Smith-lite. If New York wanted to be really adventurous and take a risk, restricted free agent Courtney Lee could be a very intriguing option, especially at the Mid-Level price range. Names like Marco Belinelli, Carlos Delfino, Nick Young and Leandro Barbosa will be out there, too, but may fall out of the Knicks price range or future plans.

Personally, I’m a believer in Courtney Lee, but he might be just out of the Knicks reach in terms of dollars and cents. He’s a guy that can be deadly from long range and play an aggressive defense, averaging over a steal per game in his career. Next for me on the list would probably be either Barbosa or DeShawn Stevenson, depending on what need I’m trying to fill. This is just my opinion, but I think someone could talk Leandro Barbosa into a one or two-year contract at the Mid-Level price to play for a contender like the Knicks in a starting role. He could thrive playing third fiddle to Anthony and Stoudemire, and has the experience of playing with Amar’e before. As for Stevenson, he’d be my choice if the team wanted to move forward with Fields starting and waiting on Shumpert to get healthy. He won a ring with the Mavericks last year and has a history of being a thorn in LeBron’s side. He had a miserable year in New Jersey last year, but he won’t command much financially and would be a low-risk, high-reward type play.

Missing Shumpert is a blow to the Knicks next season, but it isn’t crippling. There will be options moving forward in the 2012-13 season, and I’m interested to see the direction the front office chooses to go in.

(source: Yardbarker.com)

After Jordan Hill’s solid play Sunday against the Knicks, Tom Ziller of NBA Fanhouse examined the issue of whether Coach Mike D’Antoni plays rookies:

Hill [...] hardly played for Knicks coach Mike D’Antoni, despite the fact that N.Y. remains one of the worst teams in the league and that the franchise needed all the boosted assets it could manage.  [Hill returned as] a legit rotation player with Houston, mind you.

Hill had tantalized at various times while playing for the Knicks, but he was never given much room to learn and grow and well… time to play.  Many fans rightly felt Coach Mike D’Antoni should’ve given Hill more burn, particularly since it’s been clear for a long, long while that we ain’t making it to the playoffs.  In his return the other day, Hill himself stated that D’Antoni doesn’t like to play rookies.  As we mentioned yesterday, unfortunately D’Antoni responded with his comment that he just doesn’t like to play “bad rookies.”  Other players & fans have also leveled the accusation that Coach D doesn’t play rooks (& truth be told, many coaches prefer to rely on the consistency of vets), but Ziller has D’s back:

(more…)