See how Amar'e received the ball here in a position where he could easily get past his own guy, forcing the little guy to either foul or tickle him in the armpit? Earlier in the year he never got the rock like that. No wonder he wasn't laughing and smiling until now. (Source: AP)

While many of us were thrilled that the Knicks beat the New Orleans Hornets Friday night because they were the first team with a winning record we’d gone up against in a while, stat-heads likely were just as impressed (if not more so) with our commanding 116-99 victory over the Toronto Raptors because of the huge point differential.  In the world of advanced statistical analysis, one surprising revelation has been that a better indicator of team success is not whether you defeat good teams, but rather by how many points you outscore your opponent.

One of the leaders of basketball’s new statistical revolution is ESPN’s John Hollinger.  As of today, he gives the Knicks a phenomenal 87.7% chance of making it to the playoffs.  His worst case scenario, meaning rock bottom awful, is that we only win 29 games this year.  In other words, even if everything goes to hell from here on out, we’d at least still match last season’s total.  What’s the best case?  60 wins.  That seems incredibly unlikely, which all the more makes you realize that it’s equally incredibly unlikely that we only equal our ’09-’10 results.  Meanwhile, Amar’e Stoudemire’s former team, the Phoenix Suns, is listed as having only a 56.5% playoff chance and with a maximum win total of 58 games.  Although in all fairness, that’s because there are so many more good teams in the West that it’s harder to predict with certainty.  It’s not that hard to imagine teams like Portland, Houston, Memphis or Golden State going on a run and getting into the playoff picture.  Yet even the most fertile imagination and most fervent local fan probably has trouble seeing a future where Detroit, Philadelphia or New Jersey can be amongst the top 8 Eastsiders this season.

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Where is LeBron going? No, no, not in the picture, in free agency. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

Even President Obama is getting in on the action:

“He doesn’t want to tamper,” senior adviser to the president — and former Bulls season-ticket holder — David Axelrod said. “But as a Chicago fan, the president thinks LeBron would look great in a Bulls uniform.”

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Despite my post disagreeing with Bill Simmons‘ diminished assessment of LeBron, he does bring up some interesting points about free agency.  Actually, one point which he brings up as something that won’t bring a title, I think is the opposite and is the way that Cleveland can get LeBron to stay:
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Wade's coming in for a landing. A free agent landing. (source: Yardbarker.com)

After ESPN’s focus on LeBron James’ free agency last week, this week they turn to Wade:

Henry Abbott, TrueHoop: Wade has complained openly about wanting to play with better teammates. The Heat have schemed blatantly to get major cap room. They are required to sign about a dozen more players. And there are tons of free agents on the market. It’s a lock the Heat will add lots of new talent. It’s not at all a lock, however, that one of those new players will be LeBron James or Chris Bosh. James, I think, will be in Cleveland, and deep-pocketed front offices in Chicago and New York will be pushing hard to add top-shelf talent. Most likely is that the Heat convince Wade to stay with a revamped roster in which he’s the only superstar … unless New York or Chicago can talk Wade into leaving.

First, let’s make it clear it’s less that Wade’s complained and more that he’s made it clear he wants to win.  ”Complaining” makes it sound like he’s some spoiled kid, but he’s said what any star should say: he wants a chance to play for the title during his prime.  While his buddy LeBron has been rather nebulous in his desires, Wade’s been pretty clear and forthright: he wants to stay in Miami as long as they’re competitive.  So while I think it’s extremely unlikely Wade will leave Miami, I gotta disagree with Abbott on his conclusion that Wade will remain there even if he’s the only star.

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As soon as the Gatorade hit Sean Payton, torrents of Saints fans spilled out of every packed-to-the-gills bar and hotel in the French Quarter and CBD and made a beeline for Bourbon. Many of them ran. And as I stood at the corner of Bourbon and Canal and watched the spectacle, I was overcome by just how many people had arrived to take part.

Here’s the thing about the experience in New Orleans last night: It was as much a cultural event as a football event. The locals who flocked into all the bars in the French Quarter and CBD were joined by a crush of expats (Mrs. Professor included) who went to New Orleans—not Miami, but New Orleans—to take part. Every hotel in the city was full this weekend, and almost none of the arrivals were tourists. These were returning locals, clad in “9” jerseys and yelling “Who Dat?” to passing strangers.

When the Saints defied the odds and won, those people turned into a tsunami of humanity seeking out their fellow man. Even the ones who weren’t in the city at first made a beeline afterward—for several hours after the game, cars backed up trying to get into the city and join the fun. The revelry wasn’t short-lived, either. I wasn’t surprised that I was falling asleep to honking horns, screaming and dancing … but it took me aback was when I woke up to fly home and still heard the horns and music.

There’s a story behind the story here, and the Hornets are part of this too: A threatened community clinging to its cultural touchstones. Based on strict demographics, there is no way either the Saints and Hornets should be viable—they represent a poor city that saw 21% of its residents leave and never come back after Hurricane Katrina, one that has the nation’s 46th largest metropolitan area and not a single Fortune 500 company.

Yet both clubs are doing well. Government largesse helps, yes, but I also believe the support for those teams is in part a response to Katrina, one that says something much larger: in a nutshell, that This Thing Can Work. At some level, the idea is out there that if New Orleans can preserve the Saints and Hornets, it can preserve all the other things that make New Orleans such a unique and worthwhile place too.

[...]  All told, it was a truly unique experience—a city celebrating its first championship, yes, but as a backdrop celebrating much more. New Orleans still has a long way to go in its recovery, but one can’t help but think of last night as a symbolic statement that, yes, the Big Easy is very much back.