Don't jump to conclusions about the Heat, a team that's only had two weeks to play together, because they lost twice to the Celtics, the best defensive team in the league and a crew who've played together for three years. Come April, the Heat will be much more polished. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

The media and fans (particularly in New York) are always quick, way too quick, to jump to conclusions and predict downfalls based on small sample sizes.  For the media, it’s ‘cuz they’re looking for stories.  When Amar’e Stoudemire was asked earlier in the week if he thought that the reason Andrew Bogut elbowed him extra hard was due to him being slightly involved in Bogut’s injury the previous year.  Stat’s reasonable response of “It’s possible” turned into a story of him claiming Bogut was purposefully out for payback.  Likewise, with the Knicks at 2-5 and the Heat at 5-4, suddenly people are roaring that neither team is anywhere near as good as people had expected.  Don’t buy it.  Yet.  It’s too early to know these things.  And just like how we don’t have enough information to know what’s real and what’s memorex yet, you also need to take the Golden State Warrior’s marvelous .667 winning record and the Indiana Pacers being at .500 with a skeptical eye.  Heck, I wouldn’t fault you for having two skeptical eyes either.  Let’s look at each team to better understand what’s going on:

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1. Rather than a standard A through F grade or going for a scale of 1-10, we shall use a system that my friend Noriko loves: -5 through +5.  It helps differentiate things a bit more, ‘cuz like if a team gets a C-, it’s better than an F, but is it good?  With this scale, you can instead give the team a +1, which shows that they improved the team, but only marginally.  Or maybe they get a zero ‘cuz they didn’t hurt the team or help it.

2. These grades are not, I repeat, NOT, about how good teams will be.  It’s purely about how good their summer moves were.  For instance, the Sacramento Kings may get a higher grade than say the Orlando Magic, but that doesn’t mean I’m insane and think the Kings will be better than the Magic.  It simply means I like the Kings’ draft of DeMarcus Cousins more than the Magic’s signings of Quentin Richardson and Chris Duhon (although I haven’t fully examined those teams yet, so I dunno what grades they’ll get).

3. The grades are not just based on how good the players are, but also their contracts.  Joe Johnson is definitely a top 30 player, but with Atlanta giving him $120 million/6 yrs, the largest contract of anyone this summer, his signing turns into a negative.

4. Grades will be scaled based on what each team could have done.  Meaning the Lakers, a team over the salary cap, get major kudos for snagging Steve Blake, Matt Barnes, Theo Ratliff and bringing back Shannon Brown with their limited financial flexibility, but if say the Knicks, with all their cap space, had only made those moves, I’d pan ‘em.

5. Fit matters.  I like Kirk Hinrich a ton, and had he gone to the Pacers (a team that desperately need a point guard before yesterday’s Collison trade), I would’ve raved about the move.  However, Washington acquiring him is a bit odd considering they already have PGs in John Wall and Gilbert Arenas.

And now…

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After playing alongside James Posey and Peja Stojakovic, Chris Paul will be happy to have a forward in Trevor Ariza who can actually still dunk. (Source: Yardbarker.com)

In a four-team, five-player trade, the New Orleans Hornets will be acquiring Trevor Ariza from the Houston Rockets in an attempt to prove to their star Chris Paul that they’re committed to winning.  In return, they’re giving away last year’s promising rookie point guard, Darren Collison, who will land with the Desperately-Seeking-Point-Guard Indiana Pacers.  The Pacers also will have to take on the contract of James Posey.  Indiana in turn will send Troy Murphy and his expiring $12 million contract to the New Jersey Nets.  Finally, the Nets pass along second year shooting guard Courtney Lee to the Rockets.  How did each team fare?  Well…

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Rival executives will continue to try to convince the Hornets to make Chris Paul available in trades, pointing to the fact that Williams can simply slide the promising Darren Collison and his modest $1.4 million salary into that spot. When those teams get shot down, look for the Hornets — based on the hints we’ve received from more than one exec — to make Collison available as long as the interested party is willing to take back the cap-clogging contract of Emeka Okafor,James Posey or Peja Stojakovic with Paul’s backup.

Everyone’s talkin’ ’bout Tony Parker as a trade target, how’s about the much cheaper Darren Collison with Okafor thrown in as center?  Particularly since New Orleans wants to cut costs they’d be interested in Eddy Curry, unlike San Antonio.  We’d still be able to sign two max free agents, or one and keep David Lee with money left over.

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As always, I do not support or stand by Shai in any way, so any issues you have with his choices should be completely directed at him.

#	Team	Player	Pos.	School
1	New Jersey	John Wall	PG	Kentucky
2	Minnesota	Evan Turner	SG	Ohio State
3	Sacramento	DeMarcus Cousins	C	Kentucky
4	Golden St.	Derrick Favors	PF	Georgia Tech
5	Washington	Wesley Johnson	SF	Syracuse
6	Philadelphia	Greg Monroe	PF/C	Georgetown
7	Detroit	Al-Farouq Aminu	SF	Wake Forest
8	LA Clippers	Patrick Patterson	PF	Kentucky
9	*Utah	Cole Aldrich	C	Kansas
10	Indiana	Ed Davis	PF	North Carolina
11	New Orleans	James Anderson	SG	Oklahoma State
12	Memphis	Xavier Henry	SG	Kansas
13	Toronto	Damion Jones	F	Texas
14	Houston	Ekpe Udoh	PF/C	Baylor
15	Milwaukee	Gordon Hayward	F	Butler
16	*Minnesota	Avery Bradley	PG	Texas
17	*Chicago	Quincy Pondexter	SF	Washington
18	Miami	Solomon Alabi	C	Florida State
19	Boston	Willie Warren	SG	Oklahoma
20	San Antonio	Lance Stephenson	SG	Cincinnati
21	Oklahoma Cty	Daniel Orton	C	Kentucky
22	Portland	Hassan Whiteside	PF/C	Marshall
23	*Minnesota	Donatas Motiejunas	PF	Lithuania
24	Atlanta	Eric Bledsoe	PG	Kentucky
25	Memphis	Larry Sanders	PF/C	VCU
26	Oklahoma Cty	Stanley Robinson	F	UConn
27	New Jersey	Paul George	F	Fresno State
28	Memphis	Gani Lawal	PF	Georgia Tech
29	Orlando	Elliot Williams	SG	Memphis
30	Washington	Luke Babbit	SF	Nevada

Shai’s Thoughts/Explanations:

I realized that if I just wrote a phrase or two about everyone projected for the first round, it wouldn’t be very interesting, and the non-top-10 picks I don’t know intimately (Editor’s note: I assume by “intimately,” Shai didn’t mean in the sexual sense, but who knows?). Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton from Kentucky, for example, didn’t get much pub last year because John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins were so ridiculous. Bledsoe is like Jrue Holiday at UCLA, pure potential (but more of a classic PG), no one really knows what he’ll do. I don’t even know what Orton looks like, but he’s a #10-#20 projected pick based just on flashes. He averaged 3.5 points and 3.5 rebs in 13 minutes a game. Who knows?

It’s an interesting year for the draft. Last year everyone agreed Blake Griffin was #1, but they also agreed that the rest of the draft was quite weak. Instead, a number of rookies played major roles on their teams. Tyreke Evans averaged 20, 5, and 5, which only three guys did their rookie year: Jordan, LeBron, and Oscar. Nice company. Stephen Curry broke the record for threes made by a rookie while shooting 43% from there. Brandon Jennings, as I write, is the starting PG for a team that is ahead of the Hawks 3-2 in the playoffs, after losing their best player to injury. Darren Collison, Thornton, Lawson, Taj Gibson…they are not stars, but they are certainly contributors. A lot of people would love to have DeJuan Blair on their bench right now. I thought Blair was too undersized and raw to do much in the League, but he’s doing a lot of the things he did at Pitt, all on offensive rebounds and putbacks. (In Game 4 against the Mavs, Blair had 7 and 7 in 11 minutes. Not bad.) Also, I have learned that energy is a talent. Lackadaisical college players are likely to be lazy pros. Someone with a bounce and a nose for the ball, like Blair, will show up in the League. Looking back, last year’s draft looks pretty solid, and that’s with the top guy not playing. So I think a lot of GM’s are wondering if their outlook and selection strategy is accurate.

So this year, there is a clear-cut one and two, and I will argue no different. The only way you pass up John Wall is if you have a proven top shelf PG. The comparisons to Derrick Rose are fair. Wall is a better shooter and better defender, but Rose is more powerful and a better finisher. Wall’s ceiling is in the Dwayne Wade range, though I think he will continue to play point, with all these new super-athletic PG’s in the league.

#2 is Evan Turner. This season, he came back from a broken back early and immediately started playing out of his mind. Triple-double machine. 6’7″, solid athlete, excellent rebounder, good passer, good defender. Has ‘star’ written on him too. At that height, their team had him at the point. He’s getting fair comparisons to Wade, better rebounder, not as good an athlete, but really an all-purpose player. Needs to work on his release. Caron Butler is a great comparison for Turner, but Turner is a better passer and rebounder.

Now it gets hazy.

The next group of players is DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson, and Greg Monroe. Cousins is a huge thick PF, a bit under-sized at 6’11″ because he’s not a great athlete, but he’s so big he powers through. He and Wall on Kentucky just ran people out of the gym this year. …but he’s slightly nuts. He was regularly caught on TV yelling at his coach, and the usual whispers of him as a thug. But I bet no NBA manager asks if his mother is a whore. Uncool Jeff Ireland. Derrick Favors is a pure PF at 6’9″ 250 (Cousins is 280), and he is very strong and athletic. The funny thing about him is that Georgia Tech’s guards were so terrible at getting the ball to their big men, no one really knows how good he will be. He’s pretty raw. But his frontcourt mate is also a prospect this year. You’d think a team with one decent guard could get two NBA first-rounders past the NCAA first round. I’m a big fan of Wesley Johnson. I just realized Joe Johnson is a good comparison, maybe Grant Hill in his prime and with range. I think he’ll be very good. 6’7″, good shooter, a little thin, had a huge game in the NCAA first round. Greg Monroe I loved in college, but the concerns about him are accurate. Lamar Odom-like handle, shot-blocker, most skilled big in this draft, but disappeared for long stretches in games big and small (hello again Lamar). This is why Georgetown bounced in and out of the Top 25 all year; GT is in the Big East, so they play tons of games against top teams. They would have done much better if Monroe comes up big regularly, instead of inconsistently.

There have been a couple of super-talented players that came into the league recently and coasted, so GM’s are a little nervous. I’m thinking of Rudy Gay and Charlie Villanueva. (Both UConn guys. Will Stanley Robinson follow a similar path? Great athlete, some fire, but a massive regular disappearing act. Still, he’s a projected first-rounder.) CV hit some 3’s, rebounded, got a big contract and sat back down. Rudy is probably going to get overpaid by someone who loses the LeBron sweepstakes this summer, but his ceiling is Luol Deng. Anyhow, that makes people a little nervous with Monroe.

The next couple are Aminu, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Ed Davis, James Anderson, Xavier Henry, Damion James, and Ekpe Udoh. Aminu is still a pretty raw PF at Wake Forest, skills have improved, excellent athlete. His progress has been retarded by his terrible coach. Patrick Patterson was the elder statesman at Kentucky, put up great numbers (scoring and rebounding) in his previous years. Still had a solid year at KY with Wall and Cousins dominating, and extended his range to 3. Also showed himself a character guy, both by restricting his game with the influx of talent, and being a senior leader on an immature, ragged team. I think he will be overlooked in this draft a bit, but he could be a Millsap with better shooting touch.  I don’t like Cole Aldrich. He was a good shooter at Kansas, nice energy, shot-blocking and rebounder, but he has an insanely ugly shot, is not a great athlete or finisher despite his touch. I’m thinking of Eric Montross, the star white center at UNC, drafted in 1994 in the top 10, averaged 10 ppg his first year, a number that never improved. Aldrich will be drafted too high.

I like Ed Davis from UNC, looked great as a freshman, didn’t improve much this year, but a 6’11” PF with nice skills, nice touch around the basket, not enough fire in the belly. James Anderson is a skilled wing player, shooter and slasher. Xavier Henry disappeared for stretches, but he and Anderson could be nice contributors from the wing, or could be Mo Pete or Von Wafer guys who barely make a mark in the league. I think Damion James is really talented, was a freshman with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin (and that team lost in the FIRST ROUND. Man, Rick Barnes is a bad coach). All purpose forward, 6’7” battler on the boards, needs to work on his release and shot selection, but could be a rebounder and scorer off the bench, like a Brandon Bass. My favorite in this group is Ekpe Udoh. I don’t know why he’s not higher. I didn’t get to see him a ton this year, but when Baylor went up against Duke, check out Udoh’s line: 18 and 10 (7 offensive), 6 assists, 5 blocks. 6’10”, good athlete, and he’s got the fire. I rate him higher than any big other than (crazy) DeMarcus.

For late first-round value:  I like Gordon Hayward, but he needs to work on his handle, passing, and fire. I don’t know if he’s really committed to being an NBA player. I like Avery Bradley, an athletic freshman PG at Texas, and Quincy Pondexter, a 20-ppg wing scorer from Washington. Solomon Alabi is a big 7-footer with ups and long arms, he will be a nice weak-side defender off the bench. Willie Warren, the backcourt partner of Blake Griffin in 2009, could be a very good point guard, strength, shooting and vision like Deron Williams. I should also mention Lance Stephenson, who I didn’t see in many first round projections but should be. PG skills at 6’7”, great passer, can shoot and finish and defend. Could he be a Scottie Pippen? I loved the way he seemed to come up big for his team with regularity.