Evaluating players before the draft is not easy, but at least you know who you are talking about. Predicting who is going to get picked when is harder. Everyone has their own ranking system, but the big question is whether a team is going to pick the best player available or pick the player who best addresses the team’s needs.

The other question is, what on earth was that GM thinking? The most recent “what was he thinking” award goes to the Minnesota Timberwolves, for using the 5th and 6th draft picks on point guards (Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio), followed by having one of them (Rubio) make noises that he would never play for the Wolves, and creating a situation where the other, Flynn, felt unsure of the team’s commitment to him, and for good reason.

So for me to say who will make which pick is guesswork, because every year there are inexplicable decisions made, and there are players drafted in the top 20 whose name you hear when he is selected, but then never again. Comparing mock drafts, I have seen players’ names move twenty spots or more.

Mostly, I’m seeing mocks that describe players, not why they will be picked or what the team is thinking. I already wrote about the players likely to be drafted in the first round, so instead, lets’ discuss what the team should do, not what they will do, because many teams have a weird tendency to pick the same type of player over and over regardless of the results. (Lakers trying to find a point guard, Bulls drafting post players, Houston drafting 3’s, Warriors drafting skilled bigs, etc.) Redundancy makes sense for some teams, but for others it’s stupid. I’ll take those case by case.
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