It is no secret that the Knicks are looking to add some more depth to their team, while still maintaining enough cap flexibility to be a player in the Chris Paul, Deron Williams, and Dwight Howard sweepstakes.  Adding either Caron Butler, or resigning Shawne Williams would effectively fill the hole at backup small forward which they would likely be able to do on a short term contract. (more…)

"You want ME to give this ball up to John Wall? No, siree." (source: Yardbarker.com)

No sooner had the Washington Wizards won the lottery, and the presumed rights to phenom PG John Wall, when the rumors started: current PG Gilbert Arenas is on his way out.  And where better than New York, the city of overpaying?  Heck, we even have a big contract of our own, Eddy Curry, so the trade makes perfect sense.  Well…. there are a few creaks in that proposition.

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Big summer franchise movies are assembled much like a NBA franchise team. You’ve got the executives who care more about the bottom line (“Let’s sign Allen Iverson — he’ll put butts in the seat” or “Let’s hire Scarlett Johansson — she’ll add sex appeal!”) rather than whether they create a high quality product. They hire the actors, or ball players. The thing is, it’s then up to the coach, or director, to make something out of this collection they were force fed, with their name being on the line. When a movie sucks, how often do you hear, “Man, that studio executive did an awful job?” And days after the Chicago Bulls were eliminated from the playoffs by the Cleveland Cavaliers, it was coach Vinny Del Negro who got the axe, not GM John Paxson.

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As always, I do not support or stand by Shai in any way, so any issues you have with his choices should be completely directed at him.

#	Team	Player	Pos.	School
1	New Jersey	John Wall	PG	Kentucky
2	Minnesota	Evan Turner	SG	Ohio State
3	Sacramento	DeMarcus Cousins	C	Kentucky
4	Golden St.	Derrick Favors	PF	Georgia Tech
5	Washington	Wesley Johnson	SF	Syracuse
6	Philadelphia	Greg Monroe	PF/C	Georgetown
7	Detroit	Al-Farouq Aminu	SF	Wake Forest
8	LA Clippers	Patrick Patterson	PF	Kentucky
9	*Utah	Cole Aldrich	C	Kansas
10	Indiana	Ed Davis	PF	North Carolina
11	New Orleans	James Anderson	SG	Oklahoma State
12	Memphis	Xavier Henry	SG	Kansas
13	Toronto	Damion Jones	F	Texas
14	Houston	Ekpe Udoh	PF/C	Baylor
15	Milwaukee	Gordon Hayward	F	Butler
16	*Minnesota	Avery Bradley	PG	Texas
17	*Chicago	Quincy Pondexter	SF	Washington
18	Miami	Solomon Alabi	C	Florida State
19	Boston	Willie Warren	SG	Oklahoma
20	San Antonio	Lance Stephenson	SG	Cincinnati
21	Oklahoma Cty	Daniel Orton	C	Kentucky
22	Portland	Hassan Whiteside	PF/C	Marshall
23	*Minnesota	Donatas Motiejunas	PF	Lithuania
24	Atlanta	Eric Bledsoe	PG	Kentucky
25	Memphis	Larry Sanders	PF/C	VCU
26	Oklahoma Cty	Stanley Robinson	F	UConn
27	New Jersey	Paul George	F	Fresno State
28	Memphis	Gani Lawal	PF	Georgia Tech
29	Orlando	Elliot Williams	SG	Memphis
30	Washington	Luke Babbit	SF	Nevada

Shai’s Thoughts/Explanations:

I realized that if I just wrote a phrase or two about everyone projected for the first round, it wouldn’t be very interesting, and the non-top-10 picks I don’t know intimately (Editor’s note: I assume by “intimately,” Shai didn’t mean in the sexual sense, but who knows?). Eric Bledsoe and Daniel Orton from Kentucky, for example, didn’t get much pub last year because John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins were so ridiculous. Bledsoe is like Jrue Holiday at UCLA, pure potential (but more of a classic PG), no one really knows what he’ll do. I don’t even know what Orton looks like, but he’s a #10-#20 projected pick based just on flashes. He averaged 3.5 points and 3.5 rebs in 13 minutes a game. Who knows?

It’s an interesting year for the draft. Last year everyone agreed Blake Griffin was #1, but they also agreed that the rest of the draft was quite weak. Instead, a number of rookies played major roles on their teams. Tyreke Evans averaged 20, 5, and 5, which only three guys did their rookie year: Jordan, LeBron, and Oscar. Nice company. Stephen Curry broke the record for threes made by a rookie while shooting 43% from there. Brandon Jennings, as I write, is the starting PG for a team that is ahead of the Hawks 3-2 in the playoffs, after losing their best player to injury. Darren Collison, Thornton, Lawson, Taj Gibson…they are not stars, but they are certainly contributors. A lot of people would love to have DeJuan Blair on their bench right now. I thought Blair was too undersized and raw to do much in the League, but he’s doing a lot of the things he did at Pitt, all on offensive rebounds and putbacks. (In Game 4 against the Mavs, Blair had 7 and 7 in 11 minutes. Not bad.) Also, I have learned that energy is a talent. Lackadaisical college players are likely to be lazy pros. Someone with a bounce and a nose for the ball, like Blair, will show up in the League. Looking back, last year’s draft looks pretty solid, and that’s with the top guy not playing. So I think a lot of GM’s are wondering if their outlook and selection strategy is accurate.

So this year, there is a clear-cut one and two, and I will argue no different. The only way you pass up John Wall is if you have a proven top shelf PG. The comparisons to Derrick Rose are fair. Wall is a better shooter and better defender, but Rose is more powerful and a better finisher. Wall’s ceiling is in the Dwayne Wade range, though I think he will continue to play point, with all these new super-athletic PG’s in the league.

#2 is Evan Turner. This season, he came back from a broken back early and immediately started playing out of his mind. Triple-double machine. 6’7″, solid athlete, excellent rebounder, good passer, good defender. Has ‘star’ written on him too. At that height, their team had him at the point. He’s getting fair comparisons to Wade, better rebounder, not as good an athlete, but really an all-purpose player. Needs to work on his release. Caron Butler is a great comparison for Turner, but Turner is a better passer and rebounder.

Now it gets hazy.

The next group of players is DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Favors, Wesley Johnson, and Greg Monroe. Cousins is a huge thick PF, a bit under-sized at 6’11″ because he’s not a great athlete, but he’s so big he powers through. He and Wall on Kentucky just ran people out of the gym this year. …but he’s slightly nuts. He was regularly caught on TV yelling at his coach, and the usual whispers of him as a thug. But I bet no NBA manager asks if his mother is a whore. Uncool Jeff Ireland. Derrick Favors is a pure PF at 6’9″ 250 (Cousins is 280), and he is very strong and athletic. The funny thing about him is that Georgia Tech’s guards were so terrible at getting the ball to their big men, no one really knows how good he will be. He’s pretty raw. But his frontcourt mate is also a prospect this year. You’d think a team with one decent guard could get two NBA first-rounders past the NCAA first round. I’m a big fan of Wesley Johnson. I just realized Joe Johnson is a good comparison, maybe Grant Hill in his prime and with range. I think he’ll be very good. 6’7″, good shooter, a little thin, had a huge game in the NCAA first round. Greg Monroe I loved in college, but the concerns about him are accurate. Lamar Odom-like handle, shot-blocker, most skilled big in this draft, but disappeared for long stretches in games big and small (hello again Lamar). This is why Georgetown bounced in and out of the Top 25 all year; GT is in the Big East, so they play tons of games against top teams. They would have done much better if Monroe comes up big regularly, instead of inconsistently.

There have been a couple of super-talented players that came into the league recently and coasted, so GM’s are a little nervous. I’m thinking of Rudy Gay and Charlie Villanueva. (Both UConn guys. Will Stanley Robinson follow a similar path? Great athlete, some fire, but a massive regular disappearing act. Still, he’s a projected first-rounder.) CV hit some 3’s, rebounded, got a big contract and sat back down. Rudy is probably going to get overpaid by someone who loses the LeBron sweepstakes this summer, but his ceiling is Luol Deng. Anyhow, that makes people a little nervous with Monroe.

The next couple are Aminu, Patrick Patterson, Cole Aldrich, Ed Davis, James Anderson, Xavier Henry, Damion James, and Ekpe Udoh. Aminu is still a pretty raw PF at Wake Forest, skills have improved, excellent athlete. His progress has been retarded by his terrible coach. Patrick Patterson was the elder statesman at Kentucky, put up great numbers (scoring and rebounding) in his previous years. Still had a solid year at KY with Wall and Cousins dominating, and extended his range to 3. Also showed himself a character guy, both by restricting his game with the influx of talent, and being a senior leader on an immature, ragged team. I think he will be overlooked in this draft a bit, but he could be a Millsap with better shooting touch.  I don’t like Cole Aldrich. He was a good shooter at Kansas, nice energy, shot-blocking and rebounder, but he has an insanely ugly shot, is not a great athlete or finisher despite his touch. I’m thinking of Eric Montross, the star white center at UNC, drafted in 1994 in the top 10, averaged 10 ppg his first year, a number that never improved. Aldrich will be drafted too high.

I like Ed Davis from UNC, looked great as a freshman, didn’t improve much this year, but a 6’11” PF with nice skills, nice touch around the basket, not enough fire in the belly. James Anderson is a skilled wing player, shooter and slasher. Xavier Henry disappeared for stretches, but he and Anderson could be nice contributors from the wing, or could be Mo Pete or Von Wafer guys who barely make a mark in the league. I think Damion James is really talented, was a freshman with Kevin Durant and DJ Augustin (and that team lost in the FIRST ROUND. Man, Rick Barnes is a bad coach). All purpose forward, 6’7” battler on the boards, needs to work on his release and shot selection, but could be a rebounder and scorer off the bench, like a Brandon Bass. My favorite in this group is Ekpe Udoh. I don’t know why he’s not higher. I didn’t get to see him a ton this year, but when Baylor went up against Duke, check out Udoh’s line: 18 and 10 (7 offensive), 6 assists, 5 blocks. 6’10”, good athlete, and he’s got the fire. I rate him higher than any big other than (crazy) DeMarcus.

For late first-round value:  I like Gordon Hayward, but he needs to work on his handle, passing, and fire. I don’t know if he’s really committed to being an NBA player. I like Avery Bradley, an athletic freshman PG at Texas, and Quincy Pondexter, a 20-ppg wing scorer from Washington. Solomon Alabi is a big 7-footer with ups and long arms, he will be a nice weak-side defender off the bench. Willie Warren, the backcourt partner of Blake Griffin in 2009, could be a very good point guard, strength, shooting and vision like Deron Williams. I should also mention Lance Stephenson, who I didn’t see in many first round projections but should be. PG skills at 6’7”, great passer, can shoot and finish and defend. Could he be a Scottie Pippen? I loved the way he seemed to come up big for his team with regularity.

Dirk looks like he needs a lot of help. A LOT. And "a lot" can be spelled "LeBron." (source: Yardbarker.com)

When I recently wrote my little primer on how to root in the playoffs as a Knicks’ fan, I gave short shrift to the Dallas Mavericks.  That’s ‘cuz I didn’t think they’d suck this hard.  I also didn’t put much stock in the idea that LeBron James could go to the Mavs.  Now I’m worried that with Dallas crumbling quick, that could become a very real possibility.

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–To Be Filed Under “And You Thought Jordan Hill Was A Bad Draft Pick”

When Brandon Jennings, the #10 pick in this last year’s draft, started showing he’s fo’ real, everyone bitched about the Knicks not snagging him with their #8 pick.  ‘Course that means 9 other teams passed on him too, so it’s not like NYC was the only one who misjudged him.  And with #1 pick Blake Griffin injured and unable to play a single minute this season, really the only two higher picks who’ve been clearly better are Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry.  Others like James Harden and Jonny Flynn have been solid, and word is that Minnesota Timberwolves’ pick Ricky Rubio has been phenomenal  …playing over in Europe.  Everyone thought the draft would only produce one stud (Griffin) and the other players would be mediocre.  Instead, they’ve done wildly better than anyone would’ve guessed.  Which only makes it sting more for the Memphis Grizzlies who just sent their #2 pick, Hasheem Thabeet, to the D-League.  While his name is pretty darn fun to say (or even to sing, particularly when you replace the chorus of the Go-Go Girls’ “We Got The Beat” with his name), he will be the highest draft pick EVER sent to the D-League.  The dude is so bad that the Grizz decided to replace him at backup center with Iranian, Hamed Haddadi, who thinks he’s playing something called “net ball.”

–The Last Straw

Newly acquired Dallas Maverick, Caron Butler, has been banned by the NBA league office.  Banned from chewing on straws during games.  Really?  We’ve become so overly concerned about appearances that we’re cracking down on straw chewing?  And for those of you who think “straw chewing” is a euphemism or slang for something, no, it’s literally what it sounds like: Caron likes to sit on the bench and chew on McDonald’s straws.  Since Butler used to play for the Wizards, the Washington Post once did a hard-hitting news piece on this insidious habit:

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New Yorkers, rightfully, are worried that this is an all-or-nothing proposition.  Basically, unless we get LeBron James or Dwayne Wade, we’ll just be a slightly above average team.  Kinda like how we looked with Crawford & Randolph.  While there are other studs available this summer like A’mare Stoudamire, Chris Bosh, Joe Johnson, Carlos Boozer, none of ‘em are mega-stars who ensure you’ll have a legit shot at winning a championship.  Those second-tier guys just assure that you’ll make the playoffs.  Even if you do get two of ‘em.

So if we don’t get Plan A, does that mean Plan B is doomed to fail?  Not necessarily.  Most Knicks fans are worried about Plan B, but that’s ‘cuz they assume it means not just that we sign two lesser talents, but that we sign them to more than they’re worth.  The fear is that we do something like the Pistons did this summer, when they had a bunch of cash and felt compelled to spend it, thus overpaying for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, both of whom are currently coming off the bench for Detroit.  Likewise, several years ago a few teams cleared cap space to sign Tim Duncan and Grant Hill.  After Duncan stayed with the Spurs and Hill went with Tracy McGrady to Orlando, Chicago paid a bunch of money to some scrubs just to say they got someone.

Now if Isiah was still in charge, sure, we all know he would definitely follow that path, but doesn’t Donnie Walsh deserve the benefit of the doubt?  Besides the remarkable salary dumping job he did for us, he had quite a run with the Indiana Pacers.  Not only did he assemble enough talent for them to constantly be in the top of the east during the late 1990s, but he even got that team to Finals against the Lakers in… what was it, 2000?  And after that within a year or two he had completely rejuvenated that team, getting rid of Rick Smits, Mark Jackson, Dale Davis, Antonio Davis, Jalen Rose, and turning them into a young Eastern Conference contender around Jermaine O’Neal, Brad Miller, Ron Artest, Stephen Jackson, Jamaal Tinsley, and the still effective Grandpa Reggie Miller.  This was a team that seemed poised to make it to the finals for the next few years until the unfortunate Malice At The Palace, players-and-fans-scuffle.  Has a team ever been turned around that quickly with a completely new cast?  The Lakers new team is still built around Kobe, one of their two supernova stars from their earlier three-peat.  The old-time Celtics won like 11 championships with various supporting stars, but they all centered around Bill Russell.

Fine, you say, we’ll give Walsh a chance.  But if he doesn’t get LeBron or Wade, what can he reasonably do to get the rest of the cream of the crop?  The key is getting some supporting parts at reasonable prices.  Houston has been excellent at that, getting solid unflashy guys like Shane Battier, Trevor Ariza, Luis Scola, and Carl Landry on the (relative) cheap.  Get Chris Bosh and Joe Johnson to agree to slightly less than the max, and then try to snag Ray Felton, Brendan Haywood, Josh Childress, Shannon Brown, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobili, Kyle Korver, or Mike Miller on the cheap.  Maybe David Lee or TMac will agree to a lesser deal.  It would be pretty solid to have a line-up of Bosh, Lee, Gallo, Chandler, and Felton with Childress, Brown, Miller & TMac coming off the bench.

Yes, that’d still probably only get us to 4th or 5th in the East, but here’s the thing: it also would keep us out of the tax.  Since you personally don’t have to pay the tax as a fan, you probably don’t care, but it matters a bunch.  Why?  It means that the following summer, 2011, when Eddy Curry’s $11.3 million salary comes off the books, we can use that full amount to sign someone else.  If we give out excessive contracts this summer, we’ll go over the cap and won’t be able to add anyone new after we get rid of Curry.

With that $11+ mill, we could have a real shot at such 2011 free agents as Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Greg Oden, Jason Richardson, Samuel Dalembert, Jeff Green, David West, Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Troy Murphy, Mike Dunleavy Jr., Shane Battier, Aaron Brooks, Tayshaun Prince, Rodney Stuckey, J.R.Smith, Nene, Caron Butler, Joakim Noah, Boris Diaw, Kendrick Perkins, Jamal Crawford, Al Horford, and some guy named Carmelo Anthony.  Adding just one of those guys to the above roster would probably elevate the team to one of the East’s elite.  Adding Melo would bring a very real possibility of winning multiple championships.

By having a few reasonable, desirable smaller contracts, we could also trade Curry’s expiring contract in the middle of next season, so we wouldn’t even have to wait for 2011.  Like by next year the Celtics will finally have to accept that Kevin Garnett is so half-dead he’s practically a zombie.  They realize they need to blow up the team, so they decide to get rid of Paul Pierce for an expiring contract.  He makes more than Curry, but we throw in Mike Miller to make things work.  Using those contracts would also help if say someone like Melo wants more than that $11 mill.  We basically give a Mike Miller to a team for free (like only getting a second round pick in return), and then we have like another $3 mill available to pay Anthony.

The point is that it’s not LeBron/Wade or mediocrity.  It’s about not returning to the ways of Scott Layden & Isiah Thomas (& honestly lots of other GMs), and overpaying mid-level players.

Um, Jared, for a bounce pass you're supposed to bounce the ball on the ground, not your butt...

However, the Knicks seemed fairly disinterested for much of the first half.  Kinda like they’ve looked in general.  One amazing exception was Larry Hughes, who got an early call off the bench and decided to play with energy this time instead of sulking.  He played well enough to get minutes in the second half too, and afterward D’Antoni said that if Hughes keeps playing like that then he’ll keep getting minutes.  Of course the bigger more important question is whether this means Hughes will shave his beard.  Early word says he’s not ready to commit to that just yet.  We’ll keep you on top of this vital news as soon as more information breaks.

Hughes: "One, two, step, kick and... jazz hands!"

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