If the ruling from the arbitrator comes favors the Knicks, it could be a very productive offseason in the Big Apple, especially as it relates to point guard Jeremy Lin. However, if it doesn’t, the Knicks will be in big trouble.

For the time being, the Knicks must put all of their trust in the Player’s Union Executive Director Billy Hunter.

Hunter issued a statement Tuesday night (via the New York Post):

“Bird and Early Bird rights are among the most valuable rights that players have under the [collective bargaining agreement]. These rights simply cannot be extinguished in the absence of an affirmative decision by a player to select a team through free agency. We will ask the arbitrator to resolve this dispute on an expedited basis.’’

The union is trying to make a case that Novak and Lin should be treated the same as players who are traded. Traded players keep their Bird rights.

If Lin and Novak have their Bird rights restored, Knicks general manager Glen Grunwald will have won the lottery. It would allow him to re-sign both players without using their $5 million mid-level exception.

Feb. 19, 2012; New York, NY, USA; New York Knicks small forward Steve Novak (16) and New York Knicks point guard Jeremy Lin (17) react during the second half against the Dallas Mavericks at Madison Square Garden. Knicks won 104-97. Mandatory Credit: Debby Wong-US PRESSWIRE

If that’s the case, Grunwald could use that MLE to try and sign a veteran point guard, possibly even Steve Nash.

However if their Bird rights aren’t restored, here’s the dilemma the Knicks will face.

With the new CBA, there is now a non-taxpayer MLE of $3 million or less or the taxpayer MLE of $5 million.

The trick is that if the Knicks spend more than $3 million of its mid-level exception, they will be faced with a hard cap for the remainder of the season. It becomes very hard to put a winner on the floor when dealing with a hard cap.

Since the Knicks are over the cap, they can’t spend more than what is now called the apron ($70-74 million). If they get into the taxpayer’s MLE and are forced to become hard-capped, the Knicks won’t be able to make any moves (trades, signings, etc.) that put them a penny over the hard-cap, which is something Grunwald must stay away from.

So it would be ideal for Lin to sign for $3 million or less, but that’s doubtful, especially since other teams will offer more simply based on what he can do for attendance.

Lin is unlike a guy such as Landry Fields, who the Knicks have his Early Bird rights. Without Lin’s Bird rights, New York will be forced to use the MLE to sign him, which presents an issue given what it could do to the team financially down the road.

That makes this arbritrator’s decision, likely in June, the single most important decision for the future of the franchise.

A favorable ruling allows the Knicks to not only re-sign Lin and Novak, but also allows them to use theMLE and bi-annual exception ($1.98 million) to add key pieces to the team.

If it’s a non-favorable ruling for the Knicks and they are forced to spend more than $3 million to retain Lin, not only will they be hard-capped for the season, but they won’t be able to re-sign Novak, won’t have either exception to use and will be forced to sign as many as four players using the veteran minimum.

That doesn’t bode well for the future of Knicks basketball.

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Injuries have already devastated not just Team USA, but their chief rival, Team Spain. USA has already lost presumed starting center Dwight Howard, presumed starting point guard Derrick Rose, veteran leadership from Chauncey Billups and maybe Kevin Love, who is still dealing with issues surrounding a concussion.

As far as Knicks who will appear on Team USA, there are only two options, and both appear to be locks. The first and most obvious choice becomes Tyson Chandler. Chandler played very well for the 2010 World Championship team alongside the likes of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Rose and Love.

With Howard out, Chandler becomes the starting center on this team without much competition. He’s also the most obvious candidate to clog the middle because he isn’t going to command any offensive possessions away from any of the likely starters (as of today, the starting line-up is likely to be Chris Paul and Kobe Bryant at guard, Kevin Durant and LeBron James at forward and Chandler). So much of the offense is going to flow through the other four that whoever plays center only needs to be on the court to make it hard for the opponents to score. And with the likelihood of going up against the Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka for Team Spain (I still have no idea how Ibaka is Spanish…), Chandler’s presence on the team is even more important.

Actually, the most fascinating story line surrounding Team USA is who backs up Chandler? Howard is out, and Chandler was scheduled to be his primary back-up and likely the only other true center on the team. Now, the team is down to just Chandler. I like the team when they run a small second unit with Kevin Love at the 5, but that becomes hard to imagine when its your only option. The one name you need to watch: Anthony Davis. That’s right! We’re calling in The Brow! He’s a logical second unit, defensive stopper to play behind Tyson. Think about it. You want to see it. Just wait…

Joining Chandler on Team USA will be Carmelo Anthony. 2008 seems like a long time ago, and many people forget that on that gold medal team, ‘Melo was the team MVP. He played out of his mind on that squad and really re-established himself as a NBA superstar with his performance. This time around, however, he’s been lapped by both Durant and LeBron in the starting line-up, but he will be the focal point of the second unit.

He’s also added a new wrinkle to Coach K’s potential game-plan. We’ve seen how effective Carmelo plays out of the four position, being much too athletic for traditional power forwards in the low blocks, so I can certainly see a second-unit line-up looking something like Deron Williams and Dwayne Wade at the guards, either James Harden or Andre Iguodala at the 3, Anthony at the 4 and Kevin Love/Anthony Davis at the 5. That’s a very good second unit. And its a second unit that will allow Anthony to be the focus of the offensive attack, which, again, is ‘Melo’s desire.

As for the rest of the Knicks, there is nobody that will sniff the national team. Amar’e Stoudemire wasn’t allowed to play on the ’08 team because of his knees and the risk of injury, which clearly hasn’t gone away, so he will never see international action. Iman Shumpert could be a piece for Team USA further down the road, specifically the 2014 World Championships squad as a defensive stopper and force off the bench (think Iguodala). Jeremy Lin has a lot more to do to crack the upper echelon of American point guards, so to even consider him as an international team option moving forward is way premature.

There are always two international events that get me up in the morning. The soccer World Cup and Olympic Basketball. With the team Coach K will have at his disposal, I’m extremely excited to see just how high this team can rise.

And, for Knicks fans, we have reasons to root. Tyson Chandler and Carmelo Anthony will play major roles. Its nice to have relevant players again, isn’t it?

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